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Exxon Mobil doubles down on fossil fuels with $59.5 billion deal for Pioneer Natural_我的网站

一 |     　　特斯拉Cybercab定档9月3日发布，国内L3/L4智驾强制性国标也已获批，自动驾驶赛道迎来密集催化。

二 | 机构普遍看好Robotaxi商业化拐点，产业链有望迎来红利期。
　　特斯拉Cybercab即将发布　　8月22日，特斯拉在X平台宣布，将于当地时间9月3日在奥斯汀举行Cybercab发布活动。据悉，Cybercab彻底取消方向盘、制动踏板和后视镜，采用两座布局，完全依赖特斯拉的FSD（全自动驾驶）系统来行驶。　　业内预测，特斯拉或将在本次活动中官宣Cybercab加入Robotaxi服务车队。    Exxon Mobil is buying Pioneer Natural Resources in an all-stock deal valued at $59.5 billion, its largest buyout since acquiring Mobil two decades ago, creating a colossal fracking operator in West Texas. Including debt, Exxon is committing about $64.5 billion to the acquisition, leaving no doubt of the Texas energy company's commitment to fossil fuels as energy prices surge. Pioneer shareholders will receive 2.32 shares of Exxon for each Pioneer share they own.“I think fossil fuels, as the world looks to transition and find lower sources of affordable energy with lower emissions, fossil fuels oil and gas are going to continue to play a role over time,” Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods said during an interview with CNBC. “ That may diminish with time. The rate of that is, I think, not very clear at this stage. But it will be around for a long time.” Woods explained that Exxon and Pioneer will be able to use their combined capabilities to drive down emissions and produce lower carbon intensity oil and gas. Exxon purchased XTO Energy in 2009 for approximately $36 billion. In the late 1990s, the merger between Exxon and Mobil was valued around $80 billion.The deal with Pioneer Natural vastly expands Exxon's presence in the Permian basin, a massive oilfield that straddles the border between Texas and New Mexico. Drilling the Permian accounted for 18% of all U.S. natural gas production last year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.Pioneer's more than 850,000 net acres in the Midland Basin will be combined with Exxon’s 570,000 net acres in the Delaware and Midland Basin, nearly contiguous fields that will allow the combined company to trim costs. That is a big driver of the deal. Natural gas rigs in operation have declined over 26% in the U.S. since the start of the year, according to government data, largely due to the rising costs for drilling materials and labor over the past two years. “Their tier-one acreage is highly contiguous, allowing for greater opportunities to deploy our technologies, delivering operating and capital efficiency as well as significantly increasing production,” Woods said of Pioneer in a prepared statement. The company will have an estimated 16 billion barrels of oil equivalent in the Permian.Once the deal closes, Exxon Permian production volume will more than double to 1.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, based on 2023 volumes. It's expected to climb to about 2 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2027. “The combination of ExxonMobil and Pioneer creates a diversified energy company with the largest footprint of high-return wells in the Permian Basin,” Pioneer CEO Scott Sheffield said in a prepared statement. Citi's Alastair Syme wrote that the transaction could provide multiple benefits to Exxon. “Across the industry, the logic of consolidation in the highly fragmented Permian shale remains compelling with significant gains to be achieved from economies of scale by minimizing facilities spend, optimizing drilling and reducing" general spending, Syme wrote. Exxon is flush with cash. The company posted unprecedented profits last year of $55.7 billion, breezing past its previous record of $45.22 billion in 2008 when oil prices hit record highs.Exxon Mobil Corp. has been using some of that cash on acquisitions. In July the company announced that it was buying pipeline operator Denbury in an all-stock deal valued at $4.9 billion.Pioneer Natural has been making similar maneuvers. In 2020 the company said it was buying Parsley Energy in an all-stock deal valued at approximately $4.5 billion. It then purchased DoublePoint Energy in a cash-and-stock deal worth about $6.4 billion in 2021.The boards of both companies have approved the transaction, which is expected to close in the first half of next year. It still needs approval from Pioneer shareholders. Shares of Exxon fell more than 4% in Wednesday morning trading.。今年6月起，Cybercab已在包括奥斯汀在内的美国多地公共道路测试。目前，特斯拉Robotaxi业务覆盖七大区域，其中2州6城无监督运营，无监督驾驶累计超38万英里，累计付费里程接近250万英里。　　国内政策面同样迎来利好。《智能网联汽车自动驾驶系统安全要求》强制性国家标准近日获批发布，拟于2027年7月1日起正式实施。这是首部针对L3级有条件自动驾驶和L4级高度自动驾驶系统的强制性国标，适用于搭载L3级、L4级系统的M类和N类车辆，为自动驾驶产品明确了统一的安全准入基线。

三 | 　　工信部数据显示，目前L2级组合驾驶辅助乘用车渗透率已达70.5%，领航驾驶辅助（NOA）渗透率达34.2%。

四 | Robotaxi商业化同样突飞猛进，8月18日，小马智行发布二季度财报，Robotaxi业务收入8192万元，同比增长691.2%，乘客车费收入同比激增849.3%，创历史最高单季涨幅。该公司近日还与Uber宣布扩大战略合作，计划在欧洲五城部署超2000辆Robotaxi。　　机构看好L4商业化元年开启　　自动驾驶是指通过感知系统、决策系统和执行系统，使车辆能够在特定场景下无需人类驾驶员干预而自主完成动态驾驶任务的技术。

五 | 当前，自动驾驶正从技术验证加速迈向规模化商业落地。　　据爱建证券推算，Cybercab通过去除方向盘、踏板等部件、采用小电池方案降低整车复杂度，并配合新生产工艺，单车成本已降至2.3万至2.5万美元级别，较同期美国网约车主流车型购置成本低约30%；量产运营成本约0.21至0.25美元/英里，接近传统网约车的20%，为Robotaxi盈利成立的核心支撑。　　“2026年是中国智能驾驶从功能竞赛转向制度化商业落地的关键分水岭。”中信建投指出，随着L3从试点走向正式运行，L4相关技术不断成熟，产业坐标已切换至三条主线并行，其中，L4/Robotaxi在中美共振下迈入规模化验证阶段，Robotaxi、智驾芯片、激光雷达均有望充分受益。

六 | 　　在华金证券看来，智驾政策加速完善，L3/L4落地正式有法可依；城市NOA已走完“高端尝鲜”阶段，正式进入“全面普及+规模化渗透”的行业新周期，叠加技术路线不断收敛，逐渐向VLA和世界模型演进，高阶智驾发展迎来拐点，渗透率有望持续提升。　　多只概念股业绩有望倍增　　东方财富概念板块显示，目前A股市场有297股涉及智能驾驶概念，合计总市值约7.47万亿元。

七 | 　　中际旭创市值达1.1万亿元居首，比亚迪以8248亿元位居次席，海康威视、潍柴动力、沪电股份体量分列三至五位，中国中车、中航成飞、长城汽车等5股市值均超千亿元。
　　年初至今，智能驾驶概念板块整体走势偏弱，71股上涨、226股下跌。红板科技大涨393%领跑，光智科技涨近3.3倍排名第二，杰华特、长光华芯、泰晶科技等6股也已翻倍。下跌方面，江淮汽车、长安汽车、豪恩汽电、经纬恒润等多达83股均跌逾30%。　　本月以来，板块走势有所回暖，共六成概念股录得股价上涨。

八 | 金禄电子、东田微均大涨近七成，炬光科技涨幅达60%，腾景科技、光智科技等3股月内涨幅均超50%。下跌方面，江淮汽车、赛力斯、北汽蓝谷等7股跌超10%。　　从资金角度看，东方财富Choice数据显示，本月以来，共有多达75只智能驾驶概念股获得超千万元融资净买入。　　其中，景旺电子、芯原股份分别获杠杆资金加仓5.68亿、5.66亿元，潍柴动力、炬光科技分别获抢筹4.78亿、3.07亿元，睿创微纳、泰晶科技、宇瞳光学均获超2亿元融资净买入，聚辰股份、拓普集团、腾景科技、豪威集团等7股融资净买额均在1.2亿至1.7亿元之间。

九 | 　　未来增长潜力方面，根据3家及以上机构一致预测，共7只智能驾驶概念股2026年业绩有望翻倍增长。　　其中，机构预计炬光科技净利同比大增2.7倍，中际旭创净利将增长超2倍，江淮汽车、睿创微纳等2股预测净利增幅均在1.4倍以上，天准科技、芯原股份、电连技术的业绩亦有望倍增。（文章来源：东方财富研究中心）。

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