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    明星大侦探 2026-08-26

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    明星大侦探

    Understanding Ashish Shelar, Maharashtra IT and Cultural Minister_我的网站

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    一 |     这几天国模简直像在开大会。    “Every role we take on simply expands the responsibility we already carry within.” The words felt inherent to the space…          Ashish Shelar is a prominent Indian politician, lawyer, and one of Mumbai’s most recognisable public leaders. A senior figure in the Bharatiya Janata Party, he has served multiple terms as an MLA from Bandra West and held key organisational roles, including President of the Mumbai BJP. Known for his sharp legal mind and grassroots connections, Shelar has played a significant role in shaping Mumbai’s civic and developmental policies, championing issues related to education, urban infrastructure, and youth empowerment.               He currently serves as the IT Minister and Cultural Minister of Maharashtra, roles in which he is driving digital growth, creative advancement, and cultural preservation across the state. Beyond politics, Shelar is deeply associated with sports and community initiatives. As former President of the Mumbai Cricket Association, he has supported major sports infrastructure and talent development. A Bandra boy at heart, Ashish Shelar remains an influential voice in Mumbai’s evolving public life. To understand Ashish Shelar is to recognise a figure shaped as much by Mumbai’s vibrant energy as by its quieter, inherited traditions. He is a man who has risen through the city’s layered terrain without severing himself from the places that first formed him. Years spent in a modest chawl did not merely define his beginnings; they created a lifelong grammar of community, discipline and instinctive empathy. His journey is not the familiar arc of a politician sculpted by circumstance, but that of a man who learned early that responsibility grows not from opportunity but from exposure to collective life. Those formative corridors shaped his sense of belonging long before public leadership entered his vocabulary.                    Even today, beneath the roles he carries, there remains the unmistakable presence of someone who has listened closely to the city’s heartbeat. He understands its festivals and its silences, its ambition and its anxieties, its need for celebration, and its longing for continuity. In Shelar’s public persona, there is a rare blend of assertiveness and accessibility, a combination that allows him to move with equal ease through the institutional corridors of government and the lived reality of people’s everyday concerns. He stands as part of a generation of leaders who have witnessed Mumbai reinvent itself repeatedly, and he carries those transformations within him with a sense of responsibility that feels both personal and civic. The door opened with the quiet certitude of a room designed for conversation rather than display. Inside sat Ashish Shelar, composed and unhurried, carrying the ease of someone who has grown from the same soil as the city he serves. Nothing about the setting felt performative. It had the atmosphere of a familiar Mumbai afternoon where stories drift into the air long before they were spoken aloud. As Rachana Shah and Rhythm Wagholikar took their seats, the room softened into a steady rhythm. Shelar seemed intent on speaking not as a political figure but as a man shaped by the everyday pulse of the city that raised him. What followed was an interaction that moved with an unforced grace. It was a conversation that did not rush to conclusions but allowed insights to surface with their own natural cadence. Memories blended with reflections, personal anecdotes mingled with convictions, and the portrait of a leader quietly deepened. By the time the discussion drew to a close, it felt less like an interview and more like a window into the making of a man who continues to carry Mumbai within him. The interview was warm, engaging, and revealing in its own gentle way, unfolding with the ease of a story that simply needed the right moment to be told.                What follows are curated excerpts from a candid and wide-ranging interview with Ashish Shelar, conducted by Rachana Shah and Rhythm Wagholikar….               You grew up in a period that shaped Mumbai’s cultural and social identity. What part of that childhood shaped you?               My childhood in a Mumbai chawl was my first schooling. Life unfolded in proximity. You heard your neighbour’s joys and anxieties; you witnessed their efforts and celebrations. You grew into every festival, every household, every shared courtyard. That instinct for coexistence shaped me long before I understood the words for it. It taught me informality, empathy, and a rhythm of belonging that no structured education can offer.               Before public life found you, who were you as a young student or dreamer?               I was a struggler. There was no early ambition for leadership or public life. I worked hard for better education, for opportunities that seemed modest at the time but mattered immensely. Circumstances kept illusions at a distance. Looking back, I now understand that destiny or perhaps the guidance of my Sadguru had placed the path long before I recognised it.               Faith remains central to your life even with the pressures of public responsibility. What sustains that connection?               I like being with people. Service has always felt natural to me, whether in development work, healthcare assistance or simple presence. Temple visits are an extension of the same instinct. They keep me aligned with the inner rhythm I rely on.               Mumbai has reinvented itself many times. What is the soul of the city today?The soul of Mumbai lies in shared celebration. A society thrives when people come together. In my childhood, Navratri nights, Devikala Utsav, Vrinda Utsav and small school gatherings were part of our emotional landscape. I used to write the display boards for competitions. These details may appear small, but they created belonging. Keeping that spirit alive feels like an essential responsibility.               Was there a turning point that shaped your entry into public life?               When our chawl was demolished, we moved to Bandra. I was in class four. That move brought me to the RSS Shakha. I entered first to play but soon absorbed the discipline, the stories of Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj, the call of Vande Mataram and an early understanding of patriotism. Later came my years with ABVP as a full-time worker and then my journey through the BJP and Yuva Morcha. Each stage introduced its own discipline and widened my worldview.                               Among the cultural responsibilities you have held, which initiative remains closest to your heart?               The UNESCO recognition of the twelve forts of Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj as a world heritage ensemble. Eleven forts in Maharashtra and one in Jinji, Tamil Nadu, were brought together under the understanding of the Maratha Military Landscape. For an entire cluster to receive recognition is rare. It has added significant value to our cultural and historical preservation, and this is one thing I hold closer to my heart.                                         If you could highlight a lesser-known cultural treasure of Maharashtra, what would come to mind?               There is no single answer,” he quietly smiled. “Our cultural depth stretches across languages, classical and semi-classical music, the energy of Lavani, the strength of theatre traditions, the devotion of the Varkari movement and the architecture of old temples and wells. Much of it has to be experienced rather than described.Politics can be emotionally demanding. How do you maintain balance?               Sadhana. My connection with my guru. The guidance of Sai Baba. Daily discipline keeps the mind centred and prevents unnecessary restlessness. If you could pass on three cultural values to the next generation, what would they be?               Humility, a mind free of ego and an alignment with nature. When you listen to your inner voice and stay close to nature, life aligns itself with you.                               Do sports, cinema and literature influence the modern Maharashtrian mindset?               Human beings evolve through sensitivity. Films, music and theatre nurture emotional intelligence and expand imagination. They prepare individuals to be receptive and grounded.                When your journey is written someday, which chapter would you hope stands out?               I do not wish for any chapter to carry my name. Like for example, bringing back the historic sword of Chhatrapati Raghuji Raje Bhosale from London was meaningful, but it belongs to Maharashtra, not to any individual. Our life should be a dedication to humans and humanity.                               From grassroots worker to cultural minister, what essence defined the transition?               Every stage widens your canvas. A ground worker thinks for the locality. A party worker thinks for the organisation. A representative thinks for the constituency. A minister thinks for the state. The thread that binds all stages is the ability to think for others.                               As the conversation drew to a natural close, the room remained exactly as it had been at the beginning, quiet and steady, untouched by the weight of the words that had passed through it. He carried the city’s shifts within him. He understood its silences, its speed, its contradictions, and its spirit. For Rachana Shah and Rhythm Wagholikar, the interaction became a portrait of a man shaped by Mumbai and now shaping it in return, with a clarity that felt both measured and unmistakably sincere.                                    Also Read: Highlights From The 10th Filmfare Awards Marathi 2025。

    二 | 先是k3搞了个大新闻,然后昨天qwen3.8又发布了,都是2T以上的大参数模型。据说今天deepseek v4也要发布,本来想等v4发布一起聊,可惜没等到。         不过光是目前千问这一波操作,就已经有不少值得琢磨的门道。         时机上,Kimi K3刚刚发布,而且表现非常亮眼;DeepSeek v4即将发布,水平未知,但按照梁圣的一般水准肯定值得期待。         夹在这两家之间,qwen3.8的局面就有点尴尬,要是模型能力打不过k3,性价比搞不过v4,对外口径上不好宣传。

    三 |          另外值得关注的地方是,阿里这次发布时就明确将开源qwen3.8。(公众号推文作者都变成了“蓄势待发要开源的”千问大模型)          林俊旸当初离职,有个因素就是集团对开源的态度有调整,开始更多考量开源的成本收益。

    四 |          阿里前段时间也的确有这种迹象,从“积极拥抱开源”转向“有条件拥抱开源”和“选择性开源”。qwen3.8 max的开源承诺,表明阿里重新回归了过去三年的主路线。                   翻译跟措辞的艺术          比较有意思的是,千问中英文官方账号发布的介绍有个很细微的区别。英文版直接说的 "second only to Fable 5",仅次于 Fable 5。         但是中文版居然加了个“可能”,原话是“可能是除了Fable 5外最强大的模型”。这个让人不太理解,难道官方其实也不是非常确定qwen3.8的水平,还是说担心国内放卫星容易被冲?          千问还是不够自信。

    五 |          国内几家搞大模型的,阿里算是比较喜欢放卫星的。这跟管理层风格有关系,每次开财报会阿里也是最乐观的。         最典型的就是之前快乐马,当时出来跑分屠榜一骑绝尘,但等大伙冷静下来用过后发现模型表现跟预期有明显差距。当时那种跑分太猛,一定程度上影响了观感。         当然结果是好的,起码阿里高层认可,因为负责人张迪现在一统集团的多模态视觉业务线,万相、快乐马和快乐生蚝全都并入了未来生活实验室。         可能也是吃过亏,阿里这次在基座模型的宣发上不敢把话彻底说满。

    六 |          目前来看,“可能”这个限定词加的还是比较艺术,也比较合理。         因为第一波社区实测下来的结论,多数都认为qwen3.8目前的表现不如抢先发布的 k3。所以如果当初中文宣发没加这个“可能”,估计现在网上的嘲讽声已经大到难以想象。

    七 |          但官方也强调qwen3.8正在以天为单位持续进化,意思就是后训练还没做完。         众所周知,我们还远不知道后训练的潜力有多大,参考腾讯hy3正式版相较于preview版本的提升幅度,不排除qwen3.8正式版也拿到类似剧本,完成翻盘逆袭。         而且话说回来,哪怕qwen3.8第一时间在体验上没能盖过k3,阿里也是赚的。         阿里持有月之暗面超过30%的股权,而且训练K3的算力也主要来自阿里云。所以怎么看阿里这波都不亏:你用K3,阿里云赚算力租用费,股权跟着升值;你用Qwen,阿里占住自己的开源和云生态位。         这种左右逢源的资本与算力布局,是其他单打独斗的创业公司羡慕不来的。         算力和基础设施上的要素优势,也直接反映在了商业化定价的底气上。         Kimi昨天刚刚宣布因为算力紧张不得不暂停会员开放。这就把大模型竞争最残酷的一面展现出来了。

    八 | 模型本身就是成本跟智能的权衡。

    九 | 缺乏底座云基础设施的独角兽,在突发的流量暴涨面前瞬间捉襟见肘。         而阿里这边,qwen3.8虽然能力有限,但速度快还便宜,在Kimi捉襟见肘之时,那边qwen3.8反而在搞限时一折,甚至推出了类似于传统电力系统峰谷电价的夜间折上折。         但问题是,既然明知很多训练工作没做完,后训练还在以天为单位持续进化,阿里为什么还是选择在这个节点把qwen3.8抢先推出来?          已经发布的k3和即将发布的deepseek v4正式版,肯定是关键影响因素。

    十 | qwen3.8如果再拖下去,面临的不确定性实在太大了。         阿里内部对自己模型的真实水平肯定是有个比较清楚评估的。毕竟现在管理层也不是傻福,在行业内刷榜已成公开惯例的情况下,不至于像当初小扎发布LLaMA4 那样被团队拿出的版单数据完全蒙蔽。         k3发布过后,阿里上手一测,估计也发现自己的qwen3.8在绝对能力上并没有占到便宜。         而另一头,deepseek又是出了名的价格屠夫,梁圣盛名在外,其极致的工程优化和极低的推理成本是所有人头顶的悬剑。         这就构成了一个特殊的时间窗口。         如果阿里按部就班,非要等qwen3.8彻底训练完,排在deepseek v4发布后再发,那场面就会变得被动。

    十一 |          哪怕v4正式版的模型能力一般,但只要deepseek保持一贯的降本路线,把价格打到骨折,到时候阿里就是两头不占:论模型绝对能力,你打不过已经占领口碑高地的k3;论成本性价比,你又打不过deepseek v4。         即便qwen3.8综合来看是个很不错的模型,但一旦落入“能力比不过、价格也比不过”的两头不占境地,宣发上就会完全找不到卖点,面临极其尴尬的局面。                   qwen超大杯回归开源,林俊旸“白走”了          前段时间林俊旸从阿里离职,引发了整个大模型圈的巨大震动。关于他离职的原因,圈内传闻很多,其中一点是阿里内部在开源和闭源路线上的严重分歧与路线斗争。

    十二 |          林俊旸代表的,是Qwen团队早期技术理想主义。

    十三 | (也可能有给自己刷成就的考虑)在他的带领下,Qwen靠着无保留的开源一路高歌猛进,在全球开发者社区打下了极高的声誉。         但这种大慈善家式的纯粹开源,随着模型参数飙升到千亿、万亿级别,必然会撞上集团财务账本这面墙。训练一次顶级大模型需要砸入天文数字的算力和资金,集团高层不可能不去算ROI。         《晚点》报道提到,qwen max阿里是不想开源的,但林俊旸也想推动开源。         开源社区的口碑有好处,但看不见摸不着。         在一部分集团高层看来,把最顶级的旗舰模型毫无保留地开源,不仅不能直接带来 API 收入,反而相当于自己花真金白银造武器,送给全行业甚至竞品用,让别人拿去抢阿里云的客户。         林俊旸走后的一段时间里,阿里大模型的路线发生了非常明显的收缩与转向。         旗舰模型开源步伐刹车,转而采取“中小模型开源,大模型闭源”的功利打法。         而阿里迟迟不肯开源最大尺寸的旗舰模型,也一度被外界视为阿里逐步向闭源商业化妥协、开源理想主义退潮的信号。

    十四 |          比如,qwen3.6发布页面就提到,“我们还将开源更小规模的模型版本,以此重申我们对技术普惠与社区驱动创新的坚定承诺”。         这次qwen3.8发布,阿里为什么又明确宣布将开源2.4T参数的Max顶级版本呢?从收紧到重新彻底放开,这背后的逻辑转变其实并不难理解,是一次回归常识的纠偏。         说白了,大模型圈子现在情况真的就是:你不开源,有的是人开。         在这个阶段,开源的本质其实是用生态和声誉,来弥补模型绝对能力上的差距。         试想一下,如果你的模型能力真的跟OpenAI或 Anthropic有来有回、交替领先,那即便不开源,大家为了最好的效果,也会排着队来买单使用你的闭源 API。         但现在开源模型还是跟闭源模型有差距,起码从来没有超过同期最顶尖的闭源模型。         在未来,如果有一天智谱、月之暗面这样的独立大模型厂商,真的赶上OpenAI或 Anthropic,我觉得他们大概率还是会走向闭源。         因为不这样的话,抛开AGI不谈,独立厂商的可持续性就很难解决,总不能真把投资人当成客户用吧。         阿里的情况不一样。我其实一直不太理解,之前阿里内部为什么会产生“转向闭源更划算”的这种想法。         因为作为一家掌握资源优势的云厂商,又是自家练出来的基座模型,开源对阿里来说,几乎没有损失多少实质性的利益。

    十五 |          就算阿里把满血权重开源出去了,别人拿去自己部署,或者中小云厂商拿去提供服务,他们在推理效率和单Token成本上,照理也不太可能达到阿里云原生部署的水平。

    十六 |          如果确实达到了,那只能证明阿里云太菜了。         所以,林俊旸当初因为路线分歧离开确实令人唏嘘,但好在阿里在经历了一段时间的摇摆后,最终还是算明白了这笔账。         Qwen3.8 Max重新许下开源承诺,回归过去三年的主路线,说明阿里作为云巨头终于想通了自己的核心叙事:          与其像独立模型厂商那样去抠闭源API的利润,不如大大方方地用开源模型交个朋友,用算力效率去赚整个 AI 时代“水电煤”的大钱。         蔡崇信上个月在巴黎说,AI的巨大价值是确定的,但这些价值最终汇集在哪个层次是不确定的。底层芯片、云计算基础设施、模型层以及应用层,这四个层面都有可能。

    十七 | 阿里的思路是全栈式,也就是每个层面都做好布局。         这个分析放到行业视角成立,但从概率上说,从营收趋势上说,阿里自己最大的机会还是在基于MaaS的云计算生意。

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    Published on:01:32:15


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